Supporting-actor roundtable — is Tommy Lee Jackson the irritated old man to beat

With less than four several weeks to the Academia Prizes, we're releasing a sequence of reduce and laid-back conversations of key competitions. For our first in 2013:Is Tommy Lee Jackson a secure for best-supporting doing professional in "Lincoln" -- or not? With every competitor a past Oscar champion, could any other doing professional -- John De Niro ("Silver Designs Playbook"), Christoph Walk ("Django Unchained"), John p Seymour Hoffman ("The Master"), or Mike Arkin ("Argo") -- defeat TLJ, and why?

Carla Stockton (freelance writer): "Supporting actor" indicates that we are acknowledging the best collaborator, the best collection assistance. In which situation, TLJ is probably not the right option. He is in his own film, doing in a globe that the relax of the "Lincoln" audience are type of outside of, which performs, in a way, because of the characteristics of the personality he represents in the film. His perform was excellent, but was it supporting? However, John p Seymour Hoffman's perform -- and the kindness of his perform -- assisted to stimulate some really magnificently designed minutes from Joaquin Arizona and Amy Adams. That's a assisting doing professional, one who could bring the film but has created the collection perform in ideal balance.

Michael Hogan (Huffington Post): Our mathematical dash panel gives Tommy Lee a 65.2 % possibility of successful this classification and locations Hoffman second with 20.2 %. Composing on HuffPost, Frank Rosen and I have reported about Walk and Hoffman doing "category fraud" with their nominations -- both are probably major tasks.

Thelma Adams: I really like that phrase "category scams," Eileen. That removes Walk and Hoffman.

Michael Hogan: Still, I believed Walk was incandescent in "Django" and by divine intention defeat out the preferred Leo DiCaprio for a nod. And I think either Walk or Hoffman could win, if there's a demonstration elect by Quentin Tarantino or John Johnson Anderson lovers.

Carla Stockton: I am sure Walk was excellent. I won't see "Django." And so far, as much as I appreciate Walk, I think he's usually overrated. There's a type sycophancy around him that I don't get. Mike Arkin never is not able to returning up, and he never is not able to succeed. But I would returning John De Niro because his perform is more easy and more believably emotional than anything he's done since, oh, "Deer Seeker." Here's a large celebrity, and here he locations his display close relatives the main attraction and creates an element around them because of the power he gives.

Michael Hogan: I'm amazed we aren't seeing an offer for De Niro reflecting the one for Meryl Streep last season in "The Metal Woman." It seems like a easy situation to make: De Niro is a nationwide value, and it's been years since he was last selected. This is also his best performance in age groups, and, as Carla says, it's a real assisting performance. I don't know if Harvey [Weinstein] believes De Niro can't win, if De Niro requested Harvey to take a position down, or if they all created the decision it would be unseemly to definitely strategy for this classification, but it's been bizarrely silent.

Thelma Adams: One look at De Niro at the SAGs and you know he is not enthusiastic about the dog-and-pony display. For that issue, neither is TLJ, but the "Lincoln" group is intense. I would also suppose he would like to perform with Spielberg again ... or DDL.

Jan Lisa Huttner (writer/activist): The only individual who shifted me in "Lincoln" was TLJ. His last landscape with S. Epatha Merkerson is a gem, so on this one I'm in the TLJ camping. That said, Eileen is right: Walk definitely was "incandescent" in "Django Unchained," so much so that once he's offscreen, "Django" becomes a complete quick sleep. I also consent with Eileen about the classification blunder. Hoffman in Supporting? No! The film is known as, duh, "The Master"!

Nathaniel Rogers (The Film Experience): The point that they're all past champions deprives the type of much dilemma, though I do think that Tommy Lee Jackson has the minor advantage. We'll take the dilemma where we can get it, since they approved over the slyest, most film-elevating assisting performance of the season in Miracle Matthew McConaughey.

Jonathan Crow: I have to say, I think that this season, this is the dullest of the doing groups. Tommy Lee Jackson, Mike Arkin, Christoph Walk, and John De Niro are all being compensated for usually enjoying tasks that they've performed before. TLJ performs a irritable grump. There's a expand. Arkin performs an enjoyably slimy mature. Didn't he do that in "Little Skip Sunshine"? Walk performs an enjoyably slimy In german. Only in this go-round, he's the (nominal) excellent guy. De Niro is, well, De Niro. Even though I wasn't a large fan of "The Expert," John p Seymour Hoffman's performance was charming, complicated, and different from his other activities. But to response your question: TLJ will probably win, providing an approval conversation that will be so dour and joyless that it might be type of crazy.

Thelma Adams: TLJ is currently doing a professional for pension preparing, and it is the most dull range studying I've ever seen. It's almost a hologram of Jackson, he's so missing. And yet, like Jan, I experience like his was one of the activities I experienced the most in "Lincoln." And I've got to side it to the man, off-camera he doesn't pander to the red-carpet device, even if that creates him the buttocks of humor on "SNL" and beyond.

And, so, let's cover this week's talk festival in Yahoo! Movies' run-up to the Academia Prizes, to be public on Weekend, Feb. 28. Up next: Is Angel Hathaway already doing her success music for best-supporting celebrity or is she in for a big surprise? If you'd like to be a part of the conversation and you have the Oscar grinds, DM me @thelmadams on Tweets.